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The UK’s natural experiment in governing health care

Four countries, one NHS — how do different policies lead to different outcomes?

Devolution in 1999 turned the United Kingdom into a natural experiment. Four countries kept a tax-funded NHS, free at the point of use, and then ran it four different ways: England with targets, published ratings and provider competition, the others mostly without. With Nicholas Mays, Sheelah Connolly and colleagues at the Nuffield Trust, Gwyn compared the funding and performance of the four systems before and after devolution. His own reading is that the difference is one of governance models: “knights” trusted to do the right thing against “knaves” given incentives, with England’s provider challenge set against provider capture elsewhere.